Politics in Israel – a new coalition – Prospects for attack on Iran?

In a sensational u-turn, the middle political party – Kadima – will join Israel’s Governmental coalition. This means that it will probably not be a new election – but the probability of war with Iran is growing. Parliament had already begun to accept the plan for re-election September 4, when the news came last week. Kadima’s new leader Shaul Mofaz saves Benjamin ”Bibi” Netanyahu, by joining his coalition. The turnaround was very unexpected, especially considering the outcomes of the government in recent months.

US Fear for Israeli attack

Challenges to the Military Profession

Core Paper – The Use of Military Means in the Contemporary World – Challanges to the Military Profession

I will argue that the military profession is facing a demanding operational environment where they often have to operate without clear objectives in difficult circumstances and with varying capabilities.  Western military forces are today deeply involved in Crisis Response Operations and peace building activities around the Globe. For example, the armed international forces in Afghanistan are conducting counterinsurgency in order to stabilise and create conditions for a safe and secure environment at the same time as they are building up the capacity of the Afghan National Security Forces.

Another example is in Kosovo where there has been a great emphasis and efforts by NATO and KFOR to dissolve the old force structures and paramilitary and to a new and democratically controlled Kosovo [Security] Force. These actions are just some fragments of peace building, Security Sector Reform and Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration.

Consequently, the military community has been tasked by their respective governments to contribute, participate and, to a certain extent, be in charge and lead international crisis response operations. The overall success or efficiency in these operations can be contested. Not least because we have witnessed many shortcomings and failures.

One of the challenges lies in the fact that the contemporary military means with its current capabilities must both be able to project conventional military power in the vicinity of their borders, as well as be able to deploy to remote areas and failing states with unclear objectives and actors in order to conduct both counterinsurgency and peace building.

From a professional perspective, this is very demanding and arduous for the military profession to achieve. It takes a lot to educate, train and exercise soldiers and military units to be both warriors and peacemakers almost simultaneously - this is a real challenge for the military profession today.

Arméns mekanisering – ett gott motiv som blev ett strategiskt snedsteg

I slutet av 80-talet och i början på 90-talet så fördes en ganska intensiv debatt inom Försvarsmakten – i armén i synnerhet – om behovet att splitterskydda arméns manöverförband, i huvudsak infanteriet. Efter ytterligare debatt och ett antal dubbelsidiga övningar mellan infanteri- och mekaniserade förband samt efter framkomlighetsförsök med stridsfordon så drogs ett antal lärdomar: fienden skulle inte längre mötas med lätt infanteri utrustade med pansarbrytande vapen.

Därmed gjordes inköp av Pbv 401 och 501 på 90-talet – totalt anskaffades drygt 1000 Pbv 401 och varav ca 550 totalrenoverades och togs i bruk av Försvarsmakten. När det gäller Pbv 501 anskaffades 350 vagnar vilka alla renoverades.

Endast 100 Pbv 501 hann levereras till Försvarsmakten innan försvarsbeslut 2000 blev en realitet. I och med nedläggningen av Hallandbrigaden (I 16, Halmstad), Smålandsbrigaden ( I 12, Eksjö) och Värmlandsbrigaden ( I 2, Karlstad – flyttat till Kristinehamn), så hade vagnarna ingen operativ hemvist.

Vagnarna blev så stående i torrluftade förråd i ca 10 år innan Tjeckien och Finland köpte en del av dem – resten gick till skroten.

Sedan tidigare hade – genom försvarsbeslut 1992 (FU 88) – 11 infanteribrigader avvecklats.  Och genom nedläggning av grundutbildningen vid regementena; I 3 (Örebro), I 11 (Växjö) och I 17 (Uddevalla) så försvann också produktionsförmågan vid dessa orter.

I försvarsbeslutetet 1996 försvann ytterligare tre Infanteriregementen med brigader; I 4 med Livgrenadjärbrigaden (Linköping), I 15 med Älvsborgsbrigaden (Borås) och I 20 med Lapplandsbrigaden (Umeå).

I och med försvarsbeslutet 2004 så kom också I 5 och Fältjägarbrigaden (Östersund) att läggas ned. I 22 hade för övrigt försvunnet redan i FB 2000 med sina gränsjägarförband.

Idag utbildas arméns manöverförband till huvuddel vid P 7, P 4, I 19 och delvis vid K 3 och I 1. Sex av de sju manöverbataljonerna är mekaniserade i olika grad och stridsvagnarna (tre kompanier) har brutits ur bataljonerna.  Den lätta manöverbataljonen får tillsammans med de två lätt mekaniserade bataljonerna anses utgöra dagens infanteri.

Men den utmanande frågan man måste ställa sig är: hade vi med facit i hand, med tanke på omvärldsutvecklingen och hotbilden och med tanke på förmågebehovet – lagt ner samma förband igen runt om i Sverige? Behovet av välutbildade soldater för markstrid som kan agera i alla terräng- och klimattyper som har stor anpassningsförmåga har bevisligen ökat. Lätt infanteri, jägar- och specialförband besitter i högsta grad en efterfrågad förmåga.

Även om vissa av de kvarvarande förbanden i armén utbildar lätta manöverförband idag, så har den allra största delen av kompetensen bland befälskåren försvunnit. Markstridsskolan gör en heroisk insats att tillsammans med förbanden behålla och utveckla förmåga och kompetens. Men jag tror inte att man kan komma i närheten av den både breda och djupa kompetens som fanns inom infanteristrid i symbios mellan gamla InfSS och infanteri- och jägarförbanden. Jag tror vi hade behövt behålla ytterligare något genuint infanteriförband – det hade Armén och Försvarsmakten mått bra av, en produktionsplattform som också kunnat vara ”Center of Exellence” tillsammans med MSS-Kvarn.

Det är inte lätt att blicka framåt och fatta bra beslut grundande på säkerhetspolitiska övervägande med beaktande av rådande trender i krigföring. Om så vore fallet hade nog vår grundorganisation sett lite annorlunda ut idag. En utmaning att hantera idag är förstås att hitta bästa möjliga produktionsrationalitet med den organisation vi har – t.ex; vart skall stridsvagnskompanierna finnas med tanke på utbildningsresurser, logistik och underhåll samt övningsmöjligheter.

Men som sagt – det är alltid lätt att vara efterklok.

European Defence – challenges and prospects

Last year in June we heard the former US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said to Europe before leaving office: “ NATO risks collective military irrelevance unless U.S. allies contribute more to the alliance’s operations”. This speech has had a great impact and echo – maybe because he was quiet right. Yes, there are some unbalances in Europe. NATO and EU with its CFSP are together to some extent sub-optimizing the resources. And EU with its military capabilities does not really reflect the current threats and tasks for Europe as I see it. But European Union and the Council of Europe has recognized the problem and stated in May 2011 – regarding the Common Security and Defence Policy and its military capabilities:

”1. Following its December 2010 Conclusions, the Council reiterates the need to turn the financial crisis and its impact on national defence budgets into an opportunity for greater cooperation in the area of capability development. It welcomes the High Representative’s interim report on CSDP/”Military Elements” as an important contribution to this end.

2. The Council calls for a structured and long-term approach to pooling and sharing, based on a high level of ambition, in a wide array of capability areas, and leading to concrete results. While shorter-term quick-win initiatives can have a useful stimulating effect, the Council encourages Member States to apply pooling and sharing on a systematic and sustainable basis, promoting multinational cooperation, including on a regional basis, as a key method to preserve and develop military capabilities in Europe for sustaining and enhancing CSD”.

I was therefore quite happy when I read the Swedish SVD news today and what our Defence minister has written. in general he also says that Europe has to increase its contribution and that “pooling and sharing” is one important part of it.

But it remains to see how our European defence minister’s will tackle the defence problems in the long run in an increasingly tight financial situation. I’m quite sure that the prime ministers and the parliament will listen progressively more to the finance minister’s preferences. Pooling and sharing and smart defence might be the only way…..

God Fortsättning!

Vi önskar alla en riktigt god fortsättning på Jul-helgen.

/Fam. Hansson

Foton: Abris

Erica & Emanuel på Julafton

Erica & Emanuel

Tomten på besök...

Tomten på besök…

Flickorna Hansson och Emanuel & Malin

Flickorna Hansson och Emanuel med Mamma Malin

Sara, Elin & Libbo

Sara, Elin & Libbo

Annecy i Frankrike - Juldagen

Annecy i Frankrike – Juldagen

Annecy i Frankrike - Juldagen

Annecy i Frankrike – Juldagen

Annecy i Frankrike - Juldagen

Annecy i Frankrike – Juldagen

Annecy i Frankrike - Juldagen

Annecy i Frankrike – Juldagen

Vy, 400 meter från hemmet i Founex.

Vy, 400 meter från hemmet i Founex – Juldagen.

Vy, 400 meter från hemmet i Founex -Juldagen.

Vy, 400 meter från hemmet i Founex -Juldagen.

NATO and Libya – the future of EU CFSP..

All those who banned the NATO involvement in LIBYA have to ask themselves – was I right or wrong in my opinion? Was it good or bad for the Libyan people that UN, NATO and the participating countries helped the people of Libya to get rid of Colonel Kaddafi? The question could be raised in the perspective of the future – what will happened now and what do the world community have to do now for the people to reach stability and human security which is good enough.
However – it´s also of most interest to reflect upon what NATO did in comparison with the EU in the perspective of the Common Foreign Security Policy. Will we ever see an engagement as NATO in Libya to be done by EU? And furthermore – what’s the future prospect for the EU Battle Group Concept, so far never used….

Den sista delen av Sirte som intogs av rebellerna under torsdagen.

From Swedish Air-Force – picture taken over Sirte, Libya

Internet – in a minute

My brother was one of the first guys I know using Internet and mail. He was sending a ”strange” digital message to a researsching friend in Austraila from Umea University – it was 1994. Today we have other habits and Internet has revolutionized the Globe….

The Afghan War – 10 years after 9/11

After a decade of fighting, our goals remain unclear in Afghanistan – as well as the U.S. and the other nations goals. With the 2014 deadline to end the combat mission, experts remain divided on hopes for a political settlement, and stress political and governance reforms.  

But as we all know – 10 years is not much – it takes time to stop the violence and to build peace. And we have different ways to count the time, from the Western way of precise time limits and decisive points to a way of measuring the time with more long term objectives.

Samuel Huntington may be revised a second time – there are differences between our cultures. The problem is that we hardly understand it and that we don’t learn and understand cultures different from our own.

 

 

 

Operation Ajax & Operation Eagle Claw

Iran is a huge country with its 1 650 000 Sq km and 78 millions in population. Its location between Turkey in the West and Afghanistan and Pakistan in the East, and close enough to the heart of the Middle East with Israel, Syria and Lebanon, makes it Geopolitical Context most interesting and important.

As we know, Iran has high ambitions to act and behave as a regional power. The Iranian republic is also trying to take advantage of the popular unrest in the Arab world. The recent weeks have further led to a more isolated Israel (and US?), because of the Palestinian bid in UN. It should be in favour for Iran.  At the same time Iran can take advantage of the two major US led military operations the last decade; in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Both operations have weakened the enemies of Iran – the Iraqis and the Taliban’s. At the same time it has to some extent weakened US.

The Israeli war 2006 with Hezbollah in Lebanon – a Hezbollah strongly supported by Iran – might have led to the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah´s strong support and popularity in the Middle East.

For 50 years US had excellent relations with Iran – until US gave support to UK proposals and helped them throw down the quite popular Iranian regime Mossadeq in Operation Ajax 1953. After the one and only Islamic people revolution, in Iran 1979, where the Shan had to flee – and after the following hostage situation of the US embassy personnel (with the unsuccessful Operation Eagle Claw) – the relation with US has been bad.

It might be time for a diplomatic offensive from the Western society to bring the relations with Iran to a more stable and constructive position – the EU could preferably take the lead. From my perspective Iran will have a key role in the near future for the region.

60 years of support – still doubts about the future

Founex Friday 30 Sept: Since the end of the Korean War in the early 1950-     decennium, we have The Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission (NNSC) established by the Korean Armistice Agreement signed in July, 1953, ending the Korean War.

Sweden, Switzerland and Poland are still deployed there as the selected troop contribution nations.   This mission has therefore lasted for roughly 60 years now – only succeeded by UNTSO in the Middle East (started 1948).

However, it´s interesting  to reflect over the situation on the Korean peninsula and ask oneself – what has been achieved? North Korea might be the last rigid communism society – more or less totally closed. South Korea on the other side is a wealthy society with high living standard (in 2004, South Korea joined the trillion dollar club of world economies, and currently is among the world’s 20 largest economies. Military expenditure 2,9 % of GDP, Sweden 1,2 % and Denmark 1,4 % (2009) ).

South Korea will soon begin to construct (in 2012) a naval base on Ulleung Island so that, in case of disputes, its warships can deploy, AFP reported. Chung Mi-Kyung of the ruling Grand National Party said the government would build a $300 million naval base on the island by 2015. The new base will feature a 300-meter pier large enough to accommodate Aegis destroyers and the 14,000-ton amphibious landing ship named Dokdo. Chung said the base will help strengthen South Korea’s territorial rights on Dokdo, the Korean name for the Seoul-controlled islets in the Sea of Japan (East Sea).

So – we have a dichotomy – one of the poorest countries in the North and a very prosperous country in the South. It should not be any doubts that there will still be two countries. The poor and closed country might sit on nuclear capacity and the rich and open country spends a lot on its military capacity in a region full of potential issues.

We might stay in NNSC until 75 years have passed since the Korean War, or even longer. It takes time to settle conflicts and build peace. Its also hard to predict the future….

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